Well, the odds are out pretty early for several fights on UFC 119 (Sept. 25). Right now, we can see the betting lines for seven of the fights at the event. Let’s get started on the analysis.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: +170
Frank Mir: -220
Nogueira was a big favorite the first time around, and then Mir became the first person to ever knock Nogueira out, something Fedor couldn’t do in three tries. Then we heard about Nogueira’s staph infection before the fight and everyone figured it would be different if they rematched. And then Nogueira got knocked out again by Cain Velasquez.
The current state of public wisdom? People group Nogueira in with guys like Chuck Liddell and Ken Shamrock whose chins have been eroded with age and punishment and Mir is now a notable favorite.
Of course, Mir got TKO’d not too long ago by Brock Lesnar and viciously knocked right out by Shane Carwin (after knocking down and submitting Cheick Kongo).
So…well, Mir has a clear advantage on the feet in my opinion at this point in their careers. I don’t think Nogueira could outstrike Kongo and, well, Carwin knocked the hell out of Brock Lesnar on the feet. So if this one stays up, it’s Mir’s game. And if it goes to the ground, well, maybe slight edge Nogueira. Anyway, Mir is a lot bigger (muscle weight) than he used to be and that should help him dictate where the fight goes.
Mir should be the favorite here, and he is. And Nogueira is still a live fighter, and the odds reflect that. They seem about right. If there is value here, I guess it would be in betting on Mir, but I’m not really sure at these odds. I’d stay away.
Joey Beltran vs. Matt Mitrione
Joey Beltrain: +135
Matt Mitrione: -165
Joey Beltran is a healthy 12-3 with a record of 2-0 in the UFC and notable wins over Houston Alexander and Tim Hague. He comes in with a decent chance and a weight disadvantage against former NFL’er and generally unknown quantity Matt Mitrione ().
Beltran has 10 of his 12 wins by knockout, so he hits hard. However, Mitrione hits really hard and both his pro fights have been won by KO, giving him a 2-0 record against Kimbo and Marcus Jones.
Beltran is a far more seasoned vet than either of those guys and should be a stiff test for Mitrione. However, I am inclined to give Mitrione a slight edge based mostly on his physical gifts of size and strength. I think there is very minor value with a wager on Beltran here, as he shouldn’t quite be that heavy of an underdog, but I don’t know if I’d bother with this tiny marginal value.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard
Jeremy Stephens: +140
Melvin Guillard: -170
We have been hearing for years what a threat Melvin Guillard (24-8-2) would be if he ever developed a mental game to match his physical blessings. Well, he’s with Greg Jackson’s camp now and finally stopped going for takedowns with his neck exposed and giving up first round guillotine chokes.
Will it be enough to beat Jeremy Stephens (16-5)? Yeah, probably, but not so probable that there is value with these odds.
Stephens is 3-3 in his last six fights, while Guillard is 5-1. Stephens has beaten Sam Stout, Justin Buchholz and Rafael Dos Anjos while losing to Gleison Tibeau, Joe Lauzon and Spencer Fisher. The conclusion, he beats the C list UFC guys and loses to the B-list.
And the B- list is right where I put Melvin Guillard, on the way to the B or B+ list. His only loss in the last six was to Nate Diaz (the obvious guillotine) and his recent wins include Tibau and Dennis Siver.
I would consider Stephens a bigger threat to win if his game was submissions rather than standup. But as it stands, Guillard can test out the feet and possibly win there, while using wrestling to control things if the feet aren’t treating him well.
There may be tiny value again here in betting on Guillard. And again, not enough for me to bother.
CB Dolloway vs. Joe Doerksen
CB Dolloway: -325
Joe Doerksen: +250
Okay, here’s a fight with some value. What does Joe Doerksen (45-12) have to do to get some respect from the betting public?
It’s not like he’s fighting Nate Marquardt or GSP here. This is CB Dolloway. Doerksen is on a 7-fight winning streak and is 14-3 in his last 17, with those 3 losses coming to Paulo Filho, Jason MacDonald and Ed Herman, all of whom are greater than or equal to CB Dolloway. You have to go back to 2001 to find a loss on Doerksen’s record that isn’t to a very good fighter.
Doerksen has 33 wins by submission and Dolloway (10-2) is not above getting caught in one from time to time. Don’t get me wrong, Dolloway is a decent, UFC-worthy fighter. His only losses are to Amir Sadollah and Tom Lawlor. But at the same time, those guys are just decent, UFC-worthy fighters themselves.
The best guy he has beaten is probably Goran Reljic, who is maybe about Doerksen level. But after that you have to drop off to barely UFC-worthy guys or the minor leagues for his other victories.
This one should be pretty even or just a slight edge to Dolloway for youthful energy. Put a little bit of cheddar on Doerksen here.
Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk
Evan Dunham: -210
Sean Sherk: +165
Well, I told you to bet on underdog Evan Dunham against Tyson Griffin last time and it worked out.
As a result, he’s no underdog anymore. But I think the balance may have swung too far in the other direction now.
This is former UFC champion Sean Sherk he is fighting, not Monstah Lobstah from TUF 5.
Dunham is an undefeated 11-0 with six submissions. But prior to the Griffin fight, he was largely untested against top guys. Now Vegas is giving him credit for a long and consistent career he just hasn’t had yet.
Sherk is 33-4-1 and 1-2 in his last 3 (or 4-2 in his last 6). And he has taken to boxing with his stubby arms because he didn’t like being called boring.
However, Dunham is not a super-striker, so Sherk shouldn’t be in massive danger. And he has never been submitted before and probably never will be with those short arms.
Oh yeah, his four losses? GSP, Matt Hughes, BJ Penn and Frank Edgar. All UFC champions. And all of them would beat Dunham too, I think. Sherk has beaten Kenny Florian, Tyson Griffin, Nick Diaz, Manny Gamburyan and Hermes Franca.
Seriously, Sherk should be the slight favorite here, not a moderate underdog. Put money on the Muscle Shark.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: +120
Ryan Bader:-150
Looks reasonable. Bader is undefeated and very dangerous as a wrestler and a striker. Wins include Keith Jardine.
Nogueira is also dangerous but may be on the decline with a win over Jason Brilz that was actually a loss. However, if we recognize that official win, Nogueira is on a 7-fight winning streak. In fact he is 19-3 and has only lost to Sokodjou, Shogun and Vladimir Matyushenko. Sokodjou was the only stoppage.
And the fact of the matter is, Keith Jardine was by far Bader’s biggest test and, well, Nogueira has beaten guys on Jardine’s level or better (Dan Henderson, Luiz Cane, Matyushenko, Alistair Overeem).
Bader is undefeated, but this is a new level of test for him. The odds should be closer to even, and I think Nogueira will learn from his close call with Brilz. Put a little bit on Nogueira at these odds.
Chris Lytle vs. Matt Serra
Chris Lytle: -135
Matt Serra: +105
Hmmm, Serra as a marginal underdog. I guess that reflects how even their first fight was plus Lytle’s regular activity as of late vs. Serra’s semi-retirement to focus on his schools.
Serra is 17-6 and pretty much only loses to the best. Lytle is 29-17-5 (three fight win streak) and can’t be knocked out or submitted, it seems.
It was a pretty even matchup the first time around and it is again. Maybe tiny value in betting on Serra. Certainly none in betting on Lytle.
This has hotly disputed decision written all over it.
The CT Official $1,000 Plan
Not a ton of value on this card. Just a couple fights that may or may not pay off. But here’s the plan going forward.
Amount Bet out of $1,000: $670
Distribution of Bets
$250 on Joe Doerksen at +250
$300 on Sean Sherk at +165
$120 on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at +120
Now you are as even with Vegas as you can be…